Prediction markets, explained without hype
50 research-backed articles on prediction markets, Polymarket mechanics, copy-trading risk and the public cases that shaped the market. Every factual claim links to a primary or reputable source.
Altered Reality / StockSnap · CC0How Prediction Market Prices Work: Bid, Ask, Midpoint and the Cost of a Cent
Why the quoted probability is not always the price you get, how spreads and fees change the math, and a worked example showing why a two-cent move can be worthless.
50Fish / StockSnap · CC0Liquidity and Slippage in Prediction Markets: Read the Book Before You Trade
How order book depth turns a quoted price into an actual fill, how to measure liquidity, and practical rules for trading without moving the market against yourself.
Negative Space / StockSnap · CC0Manipulation in Thin Prediction Markets: What the Evidence Shows and How Traders Can Respond
Why shallow order books are easier to move, what research and enforcement cases actually document, and the practical checks that reduce your exposure without turning every odd price into a conspiracy.
Negative Space / StockSnap · CC0Prediction Market Resolution and Oracles: Read the Rules Before You Trade
How prediction markets decide who wins, where oracle disputes come from, and a practical checklist for spotting contract wording that can turn a good forecast into a loss.
Martin Vorel / StockSnap · CC0Prediction Market Taxes and Record-Keeping: What to Save, and Why the Rules Are Unsettled
Why platform profit-and-loss figures are not enough, the records that matter when a contract resolves, and how tax treatment differs between the United States, the United Kingdom and other jurisdictions.
Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SAPrediction Markets vs Sportsbooks: Exchange, Bookmaker and Who Holds the Risk
The structural differences that matter: counterparty risk, margin versus fees, account limits, hedging, and the unsettled line between federal event contracts and state sports betting.
Artsy Crafty / StockSnap · CC0Risk Management for Prediction Market Traders: Binary Math, Position Sizing and Kill Criteria
How to size a bet that can go to zero, why correlated markets are one position, and a worked example using Kelly, a hard risk cap and a drawdown rule.
Wilfred Iven / StockSnap · CC0What Are Prediction Markets? How They Work, and What They Do Well
A plain explanation of prediction market mechanics: binary contracts, probability pricing, order books, liquidity, settlement, and the cases where markets are a poor fit.