Prediction markets, explained without hype
50 research-backed articles on prediction markets, Polymarket mechanics, copy-trading risk and the public cases that shaped the market. Every factual claim links to a primary or reputable source.
Eric Chan from Hollywood, United States / Wikimedia Commons · BYHow UMA Decides Polymarket Disputes — and Why Traders Fight Them
Polymarket's international exchange uses UMA's optimistic oracle to resolve markets. A bonded proposal, a two-hour challenge window and a token-holder vote decide what counts as true — and a few high-profile disputes show where that breaks.
Tony Webster / Wikimedia Commons · BY-SAInsider Trading on Prediction Markets: The Cases and the Legal Gaps
Prediction-market insider trading is now a documented enforcement problem, with charged soldiers, engineers and White House staff. But the law is unsettled, the cases are few, and most viral accusations remain unproven.
Rama / Wikimedia Commons · BY-SAPrediction Market Manipulation: What Regulators Have Proven — and What They Haven't
A rare CFTC manipulation case in a prediction market ended in a $35,000 settlement with George Santos. Other cases show manipulation at the oracle, the volume and the data-source layers — but only some are proven.
wikimedia · BY-SAThe Israel-Iran Strike Bets: Suspicious Trades, Unproven Insider Claims
Hours before the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, 2026, a cluster of Polymarket accounts bet on that date. The trades are documented. Whether anyone traded on inside information is not.
Matthew Henry / StockSnap · CC0The Maduro Polymarket Bet: What Is Proven, What Is Alleged
A new Polymarket account turned about $33,000 into roughly $410,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro's exit. The DOJ has charged a US soldier with using classified information. He is charged, not convicted.
advokatsmart.no / Wikimedia Commons · BYWhy France Blocked Polymarket — and What It Means for EU Traders
France's gambling regulator ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in July 2026. The dispute is about gambling licensing, not market manipulation, and it leaves the EU with a country-by-country patchwork.