Prediction markets, explained without hype
50 research-backed articles on prediction markets, Polymarket mechanics, copy-trading risk and the public cases that shaped the market. Every factual claim links to a primary or reputable source.
Lou Levit / StockSnap · CC0Bankroll Management for Prediction Markets: Kelly, Fractional Sizing and Ruin
How to size binary bets so a bad streak does not end the account: the Kelly formula for a 0-to-1 payoff, why fractional sizing wins in practice, and a rule set with a worked example.
Startup Stock Photos / StockSnap · CC0Building a Prediction-Market Trading Journal That Changes Decisions
What to record before and after a trade, how to review calibration instead of win rate, which metrics actually separate skill from luck, and a prose template you can copy.
Skitter Photo / StockSnap · CC0Event-Driven Trading on Polymarket: Positioning Before the Catalyst
How to trade elections, data releases and court rulings on Polymarket, why holding to resolution and exiting on repricing are different bets, and how resolution risk quietly changes the payoff.
Direct Media / StockSnap · CC0Favorite-Longshot Bias and Expected Value: Why a 5-Cent Contract Can Be a Bad Bet
What the favorite-longshot bias is, how to calculate expected value from price and estimated probability, how to size the trade, and what the 2026 Polymarket evidence does and does not show.
Startup Stock Photos / StockSnap · CC0Hedging With Prediction Markets: What a Binary Contract Can and Cannot Protect
How to use Polymarket contracts to offset real-world event risk, why a 0-or-1 payoff creates basis risk, what protection really costs, and a worked example with numbers.
Negative Space / StockSnap · CC0Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets: Why Cheap Tails Are Usually Overpriced
The evidence behind the favourite-longshot bias, why 2-cent contracts attract buyers, the expected-value arithmetic, and how to size a trade whose payoff is deliberately skewed.
Negative Space / StockSnap · CC0Mean Reversion in Prediction Markets: When a Price Is Just a Spread
How to tell a liquidity blip from a genuine mispricing, why bid-ask bounce fakes reversion, what changes near 0 and 100, and how to avoid picking up pennies in binary markets.
Direct Media / StockSnap · CC0Momentum Strategies in Prediction Markets: What Actually Moves a Price
Why probability prices can trend, which catalysts produce real drift, how fees and thin books turn breakouts into losses, and when the momentum edge disappears.
StockSnap · CC0News Trading in Prediction Markets: Speed Is Not the Same as Being Right
A practical framework for trading headlines on Polymarket: verifying the report, checking whether it is already priced, confirming it matches the resolution rule, and sizing for the chance that it is false.
Martin Vorel / StockSnap · CC0Prediction Market Arbitrage: Real Edges, Fake Edges and the Cost of Capital
Binary, negative-risk and cross-market arbitrage on Polymarket, with a worked fee-adjusted example and the reasons most apparent edges disappear.